The coming recession

There is some takeaways from yesterday’s blog post about the 3 death knight events I encountered. What didn’t occur to me is the parallels between now and the 2008~2009 period. Much like the big mac index, the Starbucks index and the short skirt index. These things are relegated to the more esoteric forecasting methods based on human subconscious behaviors. I’ve long kept a mental note of it, but also kept my own pessimistic view in check because I understand that we tend to find results that fit our hypothesis.

Needless to say that a sudden increase in negative incidents like these could be a foreshadowing of things to come as the majority of people experience a stress event and in turn are more likely to lash out / act out in anger or desperation. My major projects are often closely related to the business environment and the economy so having a total collapse or complete failure could be the canary in the coal mine foretelling the general state of business. My dance partner showing up late and pulling complete no show are most likely the result of needing to please their new  men they need to lock down. Hence putting less effort into dancing (as well as showing their new man how conservative they are). Much like the skirt length index gets longer during the recession as women subconsciously dress up conservatively to lure in the more traditional bread winners during times of economic uncertainty. In short, less about the glamour, more about the obedient housewife figure.

Of course, all these are speculative and subjective indicators. Taken alone they mean nothing and I usually disregard them. But having them happen on such a short period of time while one of my contacts in Bankruptcy law firm just told me that they had the best month ever in terms of business… Means it is probably correlated. Though, the bankruptcy filings were not what I expected. They are from consumer debts instead of mortgage debt. Somehow, people are able to pay for their house, but are so bad with their credit cards that they have to declare bankruptcy.

As for the car break in. Well, I kind of expected it and is expecting it to get worse as the recession bring about more cracks. Personally, every little incident like these just makes me less sympathetic about the down trodden. Living in downtown has definitely made me harder and less caring about others. I believe less and less about the current no punishment policy towards petty property crime. The liberal bleeding heart policy just enables people to start stealing stuff in broad day light without consequences. Coming from a country where petty theft gets resolved within a day with CCTV tracing back to where the perpetrator lived, it is very hard for me to accept the injustice of having the thief gets away scot-free. Having grown up in the east coast where people can still leave their smart phones on a patio table unattended while going to the bathroom, this is not the Canada I know.

It does crystallize one fact for me though. When it comes time to get back into home ownership again, the need to have a house and my own garage to protect what is mine is paramount. Downtown is not safe at all, no matter how much security you put in place. When there are no consequences and people can go to town with angle grinders on a locked garage gate with no interference from law enforcement while you are on the phone reporting it. You need the ability to protect your own. Or, just move to a place without such concentration of desperate people.


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